2008 Variation in Turnout by Alberta Electoral Division Report is released

Voter turnout refers to the participation level of voters in an election.  It is calculated by dividing the number of voters who cast ballots by the number of eligible voters in the election.  At 40.6 percent, voter turnout in Alberta provincial elections reached a record low in the 2008 general election.  The low level of voter participation and the trend toward declining voter turnout in Alberta is a concern to Elections Alberta.

A recent survey (2008) of voters and non-voters conducted on behalf of Elections Alberta by Leger Marketing Inc. revealed insights as to why some people did not vote in the 2008 provincial election.  This report, entitled “Elections Alberta Survey of Voters and Non-Voters” can be found here.  There are many reasons given by individuals for not voting and several explanations suggested by researchers.   One such explanation relates to the closeness of the election.  The theory goes something like this:  In a close-fought or competitive election, more electors are likely to turn out to vote, possibly because they feel they are more likely to have an impact on the outcome of the race.  In an election where there appears to be a clear front runner, electors may be less motivated to vote since the outcome is perceived to be predetermined and their vote may not be needed or may not make a difference. 

In our continuing efforts to unravel the complex question of why voter participation is so low in Alberta compared with other Canadian provinces and territories, further research has been conducted to test the notion that closeness of the race can have an impact on voter participation.  The full details of the research report, entitled “Variation in Turnout by Alberta Electoral Division” can be found here. 

The concept of a close race in an election contest can be measured in many different ways.  One could look at how competitive the race was perceived to be by voters, or even such things as the number of election signs posted by rival candidates.  These possible measures were not tracked in the election.  Rather, in this study, closeness of the race or competition was measured by the plurality of the vote.  “Plurality” refers to the margin of victory or the difference between the number of votes cast for the winning candidate and his or her nearest rival.  For example, a race where the difference (plurality) was small would be considered a very close or competitive election.  On the other hand, a race where the winner finished with a large margin of victory, would be considered less competitive.

The voter turnout and plurality in the last 5 provincial elections was examined.  The research suggests that, in Alberta, there is not a strong link between the closeness of the race (plurality) at the electoral division level and voter turnout.  It was also found that while there is some consistency in the specific electoral divisions with high or low voter turnout, from election to election, this is not necessarily a function of the closeness of the race.  There may be other factors that play a more significant role in determining the level of turnout than plurality.